The causes of modern wars
Much is written about the causes of war in general theoretical terms, such as territoriality, greed, nationalism, death drive and so on, with little agreement between disciplines, but there is not so much written about the specific causes of the wars that are happening in the modern age.
In 2026 there are 8 major wars, defined as 10,000 or more deaths in the previous year), 13 minor wars (1,000-9,999 deaths in the previous year), and 16 conflicts (100-999 deaths in past year), making a total of 37.
All wars have multiple causative factors, but some factors stand out more than others, and it helps us to understand how to prevent wars if we look at these salient causes of current wars.
| Wars burning in 2006 | Year of commencement | Cumulative Fatalities |
| Major Wars | (,000s) | |
| Israeli-Arab | 1946 | 254-263 |
| Burma/Myanmar | 1948 | 214 |
| Sudan | 1955 | 1,521 |
| Congolese | 1960 | 220 |
| Somali | 1981 | 376-1,000 |
| Islamist insurgencies in Maghreb | 2002 | 486 |
| Mexican drug wars | 2006 | 135-417 |
| Putin’s invasion of Ukraine | 2014 | 245-750 |
| Minor wars | ||
| Insurgencies in Iran | 1918 | 48 |
| Colombia | 1964 | 460 |
| Afghan | 1978 | 380-2,805 |
| Ecuador | 1993 | 13 |
| Nigeria | 1998 | 107 |
| Venezuela | 2010 | 460 |
| Yemen | 2011 | 385 |
| Syria | 2011 | 665 |
| Cameroon | 2012 | 11 |
| Central African Republic | 2012 | 16 |
| Ethiopian | 2018 | 500-616 |
| Haiti | 2018 | 20 |
Looking at the salient causes of the 21 current wars (major and minor), we find the following factors at work:
Religion 9
Foreign Intervention 9
Dictatorships 8
Ethnic differences 6
Secessionism 4
Armed militias 4
Resources 3
Drugs and crime 3
Ideology 3
Poverty 2
Civil war 2
Territory, herder/farmer, climate change, power struggle and post-colonial cause one war each.
The list adds up to more than 21 because most wars have more than one salient factor. It is an update on a more complete study put up in 2024 here: https://greenerblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/blog-post.html.
There is a minor shift in the ranking of some of the factors, due to some wars ending, some wars commencing, and a shift in the way some wars are reported, but the main causes remain pretty much the same.
Link: Preventing War
Next: The choice that we face today – escalation or de-escalation
A More Peaceful World 