Nuclear Near Misses
Here is one incident in which the world came very close to a nuclear war. It should be remembered, and Petrov’s name should be honoured:
On 26 September 1983, Lt Col Stanislav Petrov was duty officer at a command centre of a Soviet nuclear early-warning system at a time of serious international tension, when his system reported that one missile had been launched from the United States, followed by up to four more. Although his orders were to report such warnings immediately, Petrov suspected a false alarm, and decided to wait for confirmatory reports, which did not appear. It was subsequently found that the false alarm was from radar reflections from high clouds over North Dakota. Had Petrov passed on the initial false alarm, as per his orders, a nuclear war would probably have followed, and you might not be reading this.
And here is another:
On 27th October 1962, only Vasily Archipov, a Soviet Russian military officer, made a decision that saved the world from a global nuclear war that would have brought human civilisation on this planet to an end. We should remember him with deep gratitude, and resolve to demand that the leaders of the nine nuclear armed countries work hard to eliminate all nuclear weapons from our home planet. during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.
He was chief of staff of a Soviet submarine flotilla and was aboard a submarine detected by U.S. warships, who dropped warning charges. The captain and political officer, believing war had begun (they were not in touch with Moscow) prepared to launch their nuclear missiles, but Arkhipov refused, and his decision saved the world from nuclear war.
Here is a summary of the times that nuclear deterrence came perilously close to the transition to nuclear war:
1960 5 October: attack readiness as computer mistakes rising moon for incoming missiles.
1961 24 November: High alert as communications are lost with 3 NORAD stations. Found to be an electrical fault in a common pathway.
Cuban Missile crisis. 1962: Soviets plan to install nuclear missiles in Cuba. After a very tense situation, during which Castro, the Cuban leader suggested that the Russians should launch a nuclear attack on the USA, negotiations managed to reach a peaceful conclusion.
During (3), in 1962 Oct 27, a US U2 spy plane accidentally breaches Soviet airspace. US fighter planes carrying nuclear tipped missiles are sent to protect the U2.
1962 Oct 27, a Soviet B59 submarine was depth charged by a US ship. The sub captain ordered his nuclear missile to be fired, His second in command Vasily Arkhipov, dissuaded him.
Either (4) or (5) happening at the same time as (3) could have caused a war. Luckily the US President, Kennedy, was intelligent. If it had been Reagan, George W Bush or Donald Trump in charge, the outcome might have been different.
1979 during Arab-Israeli war, a technician accidentally sets off an alarm at Kinchloe, USA. Nuclear bombers are readied for take-off.
1979 November 9th, NORAD early warning computers signalled an incoming 250-missile attack from the Soviets, updated minutes later to 2,200 missiles. Interceptor fighter jets, and the President’s war plane, were scrambled. It was found to be a false alarm due to a technician running a practice program.
1980, 3 June, a failing computer chip warned of 2000 incoming Soviet missiles. US nuclear systems went on high alert until it was realised that radar gave no confirmation.
1983 Sept 26 Stanislav Petrov, duty officer in a nuclear war early warning centre found his system warning of five US missiles being launched. He judged that it was a false alarm, and it was later found that it was due to sunlight on clouds. Stanislav Petrov is a total hero.
1983 November a highly realistic war game exercise called Able Archer 83 was carried out in Europe. The Soviets put their nuclear defences on high alert during the exercise, unsure if it was real or not.
1995 25 January, Soviet defences detected a rocket identical to a Trident missile coming from Norway. Boris Yeltsin called for his nuclear button to be made available. Watchers realised that it was not on course for the USSR. It turned out to be a NASA rocket to study the Aurora Borealis. Warning had been given to the Soviets, but it had not been passed up the chain of command quickly enough.
Most of these events are to be found here.
There may well be others, but these 11 instances should be enough to convince any reasonable person that all it takes is a for another running together of technological problems to occur at a time of war for the order to be given by one nuclear armed leader.
Deterrence is not infallible.
It follows that we must rid the Earth of these weapons of mass destruction.
This is possible, given the political will, and it is up to us, the people, to create that will, working with wise politicians to overcome the denial and intellectual laziness that operates in so many politicians and commentators.
A More Peaceful World 