Reducing Nuclear Weapons to Global Zero

Given that the nuclear deterrence strategy is not infallible, and that a global nuclear war would cause the end of human civilisation on Earth, it is imperative that the leaders of all nations must work together to eliminate all nuclear weapons from the world in a balanced and verified way.

It is difficult to believe that this can be done, but in fact, it has already been started successfully.

The Start Treaty

The quantity of nuclear weapons has already been significantly reduced. 

The START I Treaty came into force in 1994 and has been extended twice, but the current START III was ended in February 2026.  

Before this treaty, the USA and Russia had about 60,000 nuclear weapons between them. Now the figure is nearer 10,000. 

This figure shows the approximate stockpiles in the world over time, showing the dramatic reduction produced by START, which should give us hope that further reductions are possible. 

The Non-Proliferation Treaty has been in force since 1974. Unfortunately, the Nuclear Weapons States (NWS) have not met their obligation under Article 6 of the Treaty to “pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a Treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control”. 

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) came into force in January 2021, and effectively makes the possession of nuclear weapons illegal. The Nuclear Weapons States are ignoring the TPNW at present.  

The NWS are a tiny minority of the 193 states which comprise the United Nations, and as time goes by they will begin to feel their isolation more acutely.  

CONFIDENCE BUILDING  

Intensive diplomacy and consciousness raising is necessary before leaders will begin to work on a plan to reduce the number of nuclear weapons on the planet to zero, but once they start to apply themselves to this vital task, the action plan is relatively simple. 

How can this be achieved? The action plan developed by the Global Zero group (now sadly defunct) is a good place to start.

GLOBAL ZERO ACTION PLAN

Phase I

Russia and the U.S. cut their nuclear arsenals from over 5,000 warheads each to 1,100 warheads each.

Nuclear-armed states engage in direct talks to strengthen global stability, reduce nuclear risks, and set the stage for further arsenal cuts.

Nuclear-armed states commit to never using nuclear weapons first.

Phase II

Russia, the U.S., and China cut their nuclear arsenals to 300 warheads each. All other nuclear-armed states agree to not exceed this limit.

Nuclear-armed states continue direct talks to further global stability, strengthen monitoring and verification, and develop a framework for the Global Zero Accords.

Phase III

All nuclear-armed states negotiate, sign and ratify the Global Zero Accords, a binding international treaty that removes all nuclear weapons from military service within two years, and requires the complete destruction of nuclear warheads by 2045.

Phase IV

Universal prohibition, verification, and enforcement continues.

Source:  https://www.globalzero.org/reaching-zero/

Article 4 of the TPNW provides an official mechanism for the Action Plan to be implemented.  https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/ihl-treaties/tpnw-2017/article-4?activeTab=undefined

IN CONCLUSION, the use of nuclear weapons result in the destruction of human civilisation, the nuclear deterrence system capable of failure, and it is possible for the international community  to eliminate totally the presence of nuclear weapons from the world.

Reducing the Risk of Misjudgement

At the same time as we are working to eliminate nuclear weapons, we should also be working to reduce the chance of nuclear weapons being fired by political misjudgement.

Measures to check on the mental stability of nuclear armed Presidents and advisors, and their consumption of mind-altering drugs should be introduced to reduce the risks of a nuclear war.  

Clearly, anyone involved in the decision of whether nuclear weapons might be used should be in a sound and reasonable state of mind. Stimulants like cocaine, amphetamine should not be found in their bloodstream, nor other recreational drugs. they should be screened for prescribed drugs that can affect the mental state, and also for psychiatric illnesses that might affect judgement.

Dr Bandy X Lee, an eminent psychiatrist specialising in the public health aspects of violence, has long warned publicly and in her book that Trump is not a fit person to handle nuclear weapons. She lost her tenure at Harvard because she spoke out on this issue.

Dr David Owen wrote about what he called the “Hubris Syndrome” when politicians lose their sense of self-criticism through being surrounded by yes-men.

An unpublished paper proposing a “Periodic Assessment of Nuclear Executives” prepared by two members of MEDACT compares the requirement for airline pilots with those not required of national leaders.

It is unlikely that the leaders would agree to this check-up, but the attempt to create it would serve to highlight the responsibilities of leaders of NWS.

Next: Peace is possible